The MarketPsychic blog @ Protradersmarket
01.27.2006 - 05:21h6:43am 1-27Hello, and good morning. The 10yr has certainly traded down this week, and today's advance GDP # may be the catalyst for the move to continue if it is a lot higher than estimated. Also check to see if the price deflator is higher or lower than estimates. Check out the weekly volume histogram, the high volume price is 108-17.5, and it looks like sellers could push it back below there if it auctions above that price. Watch the GDP # though...
Here is the daily chart of the 10yr, the 9EMA has moved below the 20EMA, and the 9EMA stands now at around 109-04. So, if the market by chance trades up to around that area, that looks like a great spot to get short.
Good luck today
01.25.2006 - 05:59h1-15 6:48amHello. Today, I post a chart of the volume histogram for the 10yr note over the past couple of weeks. There looks like a lot more volume above the high volume price of 109-16 than below, thus I look for sellers to come in if price gets above 109-16. Here is the chart...
01.23.2006 - 15:46hCali Dreams -- 4:59pm on 1/23Here is a poem I just wrote
give me the ocean breeze
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springs in my knees
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funions and bunyons
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i love human people
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happy joy smiles
all across the nation
love one and all
in mystical elation
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Jason
01.23.2006 - 06:49h1-23 7:05amGood morning. It looks like 109-18 is the level to be mindful of in the 10yr note. Check out the daily chart below, for three straight days the market has opened around 109-18 and not been able to stay above that price.
Also, have a look at the weekly volume histogram, the price at which the most volume has occured is 109-18, and there is a lot more volume above there than below, sellers may come in above 109-18 and bring price lower.
01.20.2006 - 05:27h6:40am on 1/20Hi. We are still trading in the approximate one point range we have been in throughout the past month. The two month volume histogram has a significant volume imbalance. The high volume price of the past two months is 109-21.5, and there is a lot more volume below that price than above it, which indicates to me that buyers might bring price back above 109-21.5 and create a more balanced volume distribution. Check out the two month volume histogram below
The next two weeks has a lot of very important data coming out such as quarterly refunding announcement, non-farm payrolls, and the fed meeting on 1/31. The buyers that are coming in below 109-21.5 can change to sellers in an instant if payrolls are 350K, or if the fed indicates they have multiple increases left AFTER 1/31, or if the treasury sells more 30yr bonds than initially estimated, etc.
01.19.2006 - 06:26h6:55am on 1/19Good morning. Treasuries had a big slide yesterday, and traded even lower overnight. Today I am focusing on the weekly chart selling setup that is still occuring and the weekly volume histogram. Have a look at the weekly chart. If the 10yr stays below the 9EMA at 109-15, look out below, especially if data today and tomorrow is bond bearish.
And the weekly volume profile has the high volume area at 109-21, with a lot more volume occuring above than below, thus I look for sellers to come in above that area.
There are always points and counterpoints to views of the market. These two ideas are what I am focusing on.
01.17.2006 - 06:30h1-17 7:00amHello. The daily chart still has a bullish look for treasuries, and a buying setup occurs if the 10yr note gets below 109-16.5, check out the chart
Also, the high volume price of a two month volume histogram is 109-21, with a ton more volume below that area than above, so buyers may come in below 109-21 to create a more balanced structure. Here is the chart
This week has some important economic releases, including CPI on Wednesday. Since the Fed speakers have indicated a dependency on the data, this market could easily reverse course on a higher than expected core CPI #. For today, it looks like that buyers might come in below 109-21, and especially 109-16.5.
01.13.2006 - 06:58h7:11am on 1-13Hi there. We have a couple of significant eco. #'s at 7:30 central time, which may move the market. Check out the volume histogram from the past two months, it looks like when ZNH6 gets below the high volume price of 109-04, buyers may come in. But I am mindful of the #'s at 7:30, they may cause big moves either way, so that takes precedence initially. For example, if retail sales and core PPI are way higher than the estimates, the market might be more likely to go through 109-04 than it would if the numbers were lower than the estimates.
Have a great day.
01.12.2006 - 05:52h6:46am on 1-12Great morning everyone. The 10yr note continued its move down yesterday, with a low of 108-30.5. The volume histogram I posted yesterday indicated price would most likely be pushed back down if it got over 109-08, and that is exactly what happened. For today, the three day volume profile has an imbalanced structure, with more volume occuring above the high volume price of 109-07. Sellers may come in above there. Have a look
The weekly chart still has a selling set-up, with the 9EMA below the 20EMA with slow stochs falling. The 9EMA comes in at 109-08.5, which may be good resistance.
01.11.2006 - 05:44h6:32am on 1-11Good morning citizens. We have some "conflicting" set-ups in the 10year note, the recent volume and moves have been to the downside though. First, the weekly chart 9EMA poke selling set-up looks like it is in the midst of working itself out, have a look. The slow stochs are still falling and the 9EMA is below the 20EMA
The volume histogram of the past 2 days has sellers above 109-08, the price with highest volume of the past two days. 109-15/16 looks like good resistance.
However, the daily chart slow stochs are still rising, and a buying setup is still technically present. But this set-up is less bullish than the previous ones because the MA's have turned down slightly. Still, have a look
Also, the monthly profile still has a volume imbalance, with more volume occuring below the "longest line" or POC, than occuring above it. Typically, I am bullish when price is below the POC when this structure occurs, but the trend of the POC location is DOWNWARD, it looks like price is finding value at lower and lower locations.
Finally there are several intriguing factors, that to me, are bearish for the US bond market:
1) Gold is rallying
2) Statements of Chinese officials indicating diversification out of dollar assets
3) International stock markets rallying
Of course there is always more to the story, there are always factors I and most others are ignorant of, but if these three factors get amped up soon, the yield curve inversion may be shortlived. We will see.
01.10.2006 - 12:35h12:45pm on 1-10There were a couple excellent setups today that you can see on the 2min bar chart below. ZNH6 held below the multiday high volume price of 109-19.
As of 12:48 pm today, the high volume area on the volume profile of today (see chart below) is 109-09, with more volume above that price than below. This indicates to me that sellers may show up above 109-09 to create a more balanced histogram. 109-15/16 looks like good resistance.
01.10.2006 - 08:56h9:06am on 1/10Hello. The ZNH6 is still in the range I pointed out yesterday, and the point of control (high volume price area) moved down to 109-19 from 109-23 on a one month volume profile, as you can see in the chart below 
The daily chart still has a buying set up when price gets below the 9ema, which is at 109-18 now. However, the POC on the monthly profile/histogram moved down 8 ticks, which indicates more volume at lower prices, and price hasn't been able to stay above the high volume area. Here is the daily chart
01.09.2006 - 06:16hmorning of 1-9Hello everyone. After the jobs #, the 10yr is still in the same range (109-15 to 109-27) as it has been for the past couple of weeks.
Here are few good setups that occured on Friday, the 60/26/10 stochs on 2 and 4 min bars charts seem to work well 
For today, the high volume area on a multiday volume profile is still 109-23, and it looks like there have not been big sellers below there. However, the fact that buyers couldn't keep it above 109-23 on Friday might be significant. Here is the volume profile for the past month 
And the daily chart indicates a 9EMA buying setup (dip under 9 EMA with rising slow stochs) if price gets under 109-20. Have a look 
Finally, the weekly chart still has a 9EMA poke selling setup. If buyers can't keep the 10yr above 109-23, this could work out and we could see 109-10/11. (weekly 9EMA).
Good luck today.
01.06.2006 - 05:41h6:41am on 1-6Good morning. In around 50 minutes the monthly payrolls # is released, and that typically causes large swings in the treasuries. The predictive qualities of the levels and chart indicators can become diminished due to the potential extreme volatility caused by the jobs number.
Another news item that may effect the bond market is that IBM is cancelling their pension plans, and shifting to a 401-K plan. If others follow suit, this may have potential to decrease bond prices due to diminished pension plan buying of bonds.
AS FOR TODAY -- the buyers have been in control, not letting the march 10YR stay below 109-23. The highest volume price on a multiday volume profile moved up two ticks to 109-24. Typically, I would say buyers will push the marktet back up through this level if the market gets below there, but today's number takes priority. Check out the chart 
Also check out the daily chart, which has a buying set-up if the 10yr gets below 109-19 (9EMA dip with rising slow stochs). Again, watch the #. If payrolls comes in at or below 75K, we probably won't see 109-19. If the # comes in at or above 250K, I will be patient and watch how the market responds, and wait for setups. Check out the daily chart with the 109-19 setup 
Finally, the weekly chart of the ZN has a bearish set-up which the market might realize if the payrolls # today is way above 200, say 350 or more. The 9EMA is below the 20 EMA, with falling slow stochs. Watch the market to go the 9EMA, which is 109-09/10, if the # is really high. We'll see...
Good luck today.
01.05.2006 - 13:38h2pm on 1-5Well, the buyers showed up again today below my level of 109-23! And its rallying into the close, I wonder what tomorrow's payrolls # will be. The high volume area of the multiday price histogram moved up to 109-24, buyers are in control right now. Check out the the 2min bars chart below with marked setups -- the 9EMA dip going with the slow stochs (60/26/10 settings) works on shorter timeframes as well as daily charts. 
01.05.2006 - 06:28hmorning of 1/5Good morning everyone. We had a great buying setup work out yesterday, check out the daily chart 
The same buying setup is present today if price gets below the 9 EMA, which is at 109-17.5 now.
Also, check out yesterday's MACD histogram divergence with price, confirming the low of the day on a 2min chart 
And the volume histogram today has a bullish look when price gets below 109-23. Same explanation as yesterday, there is an imbalanced bell curve, buyers may come in below 109-23 to balance out the volume distribution. 
Good luck today
01.04.2006 - 05:30hmorning of 1/4Good morning! It is 6:41 am here in Chicago, and the treasuries open in about 40 minutes. Yesterday was a very volatile day, and I need to show you an AMAZING set-up that occurs on every single stock and future, almost every single day (on shorter time-frame charts, like 2 min, 4 min bars, etc). This set-up helps you catch a continuation of the trend, it works really well (most of the time, just like anything). Check it out: 
The set-up: When price dips below the 9 EMA (exponential moving average) AND the slow stochastic is rising (green and yellow lines in subwindow), go long in anticipation of the market continuing with its trend (as indicated by the stochs and EMA's). As with any set-up, this one occurs more often each time you shrink the timeframe. Alas, it may occur once a month on a daily chart, but it may occur 5 times/day on a 2min chart -- on ANY stock or future.
Regarding today, the daily chart above indicates the same buying set-up if the market gets below 109-16. Also here is another way of looking at price action, the volume histogram (very similar to Market Profile). On the following chart, there is an imbalance of volume below 109-21 (the red extended line), and since the ideal form of the VH is a bell curve, buyers may bring the market above 109-21 if it dips below there, thus making the bell curve more balanced. 
01.03.2006 - 20:29hWelcome!My name is Jason Rotman. I am the founder of Protradersmarket.com and I am a professional trader. Protradersmarket.com is the ultimate resource for the global trading community.
MarketPsychic blog @ Protradersmarket provides traders and market enthusiasts across the world with profitable trading set-ups and ideas and valuable trading wisdom. IMPORTANT: These set-ups that will be posted daily can be applied profitably to ANY MARKET (stocks and futures). I will usually post charts with labelled set-ups of the CBOT 10yr note future, because this is the product which I trade every day.
This is not an advisory service, this is a trader helping and communicating with other traders, period. Feedback and ideas are welcome. I will also write about other futures markets if I see a great set-up in the morning, or if a textbook set-up occurs during the day. I intend the MarketPsychic blog to be the premier destination for people who want to learn about trading the market profitably (and serenely!). For the part in parentheses, practicing DISCIPLINE is key.
My best wishes go to all of you, and remember to visit MarketPsychic blog @ Protradersmarket every day. After reading it for the first week or two, checking back might come naturally:) If you have suggestions or ideas, just write me!
Finally, when you are done reading the MarketPsychic blog, be sure to click on the bull (or the word Home) to go to the protradersmarket.com homepage, and check out your service providers of the trading community. They, along with the traders, are instrumental in making the business what it is today. Thank you.
Sincerely,
Jason
FYI -- Thanks to the friends who introduced me to the source of many of these setups, www.nqoos.com, a site created by a trader for traders.
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